The development of a road safety policy index and its application in evaluating the effects of road safety policy
研究为挪威构建了一个由十项措施组成的道路安全政策指数（1980-2021年从50升至185），并用负二项回归和多变量时间序列模型证实该指数与伤亡减少呈负相关，但精确量化效果存在困难。
The paper presents an exploratory study of a road safety policy index developed for Norway. The index consists of ten road safety measures for which data on their use from 1980 to 2021 are available. The ten measures were combined into an index which had an initial value of 50 in 1980 and increased to a value of 185 in 2021. To assess the application of the index in evaluating the effects of road safety policy, negative binomial regression models and multivariate time series models were developed for traffic fatalities, fatalities and serious injuries, and all injuries. The coefficient for the policy index was negative, indicating the road safety policy has contributed to reducing the number of fatalities and injuries. The size of this contribution can be estimated by means of at least three estimators that do not always produce identical values. There is little doubt about the sign of the relationship: a stronger road safety policy (as indicated by index values) is associated with a larger decline in fatalities and injuries. A precise quantification is, however, not possible. Different estimators of effect, all of which can be regarded as plausible, yield different results.