Do higher global oil and wheat prices matter for the wheat flour price in Lebanon?
研究全球石油和小麦价格以及本地价格冲击对黎巴嫩小麦面粉实际价格的影响，发现全球商品价格冲击作用微小，而本地汽油价格和面粉特定冲击影响显著。
Abstract This article investigates the effect of global oil and wheat prices, and local price shocks on the real price of wheat flour in Lebanon. We estimate a structural vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (SVARX) using Bayesian methods. We then compute the impulse response functions and find that global commodity price shocks play a trivial role. Meanwhile, local gasoline price and wheat flour price‐specific shocks trigger large increases in the Lebanese wheat flour price on impact. Furthermore, since 2020, local gasoline price and wheat flour price‐specific shocks have contributed the most to the historical variation in the Lebanese wheat flour price.