Opioid Use, Mortality Risks and Crime: Insights from a Rapid Reduction in Heroin Supply
研究2001年澳大利亚海洛因供应冲击对阿片类药物使用者死亡风险和犯罪活动的影响，发现短期负面效应（药物替代、犯罪增加）随时间消退，长期死亡率显著下降，约每48人中1人获救。
Abstract In 2001, a large and sustained supply shock halted a heroin epidemic in Australia. We use drug offenses to identify individual opioid users and examine how the shock affected their mortality risks and criminal activity over the next eight years. Initially, gains from fewer overdoses are offset by drug substitution and more crime, including homicides. Most adverse effects dissipate over time, while persistent mortality reductions save the lives of around one in 48 individuals in our sample. Our results demonstrate that reducing the supply of illicit opioids can lead to meaningful longer-term improvements, even when the short-term effects are ambiguous.