A Peace Baby Boom? Evidence from Colombia’s Peace Agreement
利用哥伦比亚行政数据，研究发现长期内部冲突结束后，受暴力影响地区的生育率相对提高了3.2%，且效果在暴力程度更高的地区更显著，并非由健康供给、婴儿死亡率或迁移驱动。
<h3>Abstract</h3> Violence affects households' preferences, perceptions, and constraints regarding fertility choices. What happens when violence ends? Using administrative data from Colombia, we find that the end of a long internal conflict differentially increased fertility by 3.2 percent in areas exposed to violence. The effect is present across all reproductive ages and larger in municipalities with higher levels of violence exposure at baseline. This differential fertility increase is not driven by health supply indicators, by the mortality of newborns and infants, or by differential migration. We provide evidence consistent with an increased perception of security, higher returns for childbearing, and more parental investment.