Optimal predictive selective maintenance for fleets of mission-oriented systems
针对执行系列任务的车队，提出一种结合机器学习和优化的预测性选择性维护策略，在资源约束下选择维护动作以最小化成本并确保高可靠性，实验验证了其有效性。
In many settings, fleets of assets must perform series of missions with in-between finite breaks. For such fleets, a widely used maintenance strategy is the fleet selective maintenance (FSM). Under resource constraints, the FSM problem selects an optimal subset of feasible maintenance actions to be performed on a subset of components to minimise the maintenance cost while ensuring high system reliability during the upcoming mission. The majority of extant FSMP models are focussed on traditional physics-based reliability models. With recent advances in Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) algorithms, data-driven methods have shown accuracy in predicting remaining useful life (RUL). This paper proposes a predictive FSM strategy for fleets of complex and large multicomponent systems. It relies on a concurrent ML/DL and optimisation approach where a clustering algorithm is used to determine the health states of components and a probabilistic RUL prognostics model is used for component reliability assessment. An optimisation model is developed to solve the predictive FSM problem to ensure high reliability of all systems within the fleet. An efficient two-phase solution approach is developed to solve this complex optimisation problem. Numerical experiments show the validity of the approach and highlight the improved maintenance plans achieved.