An assessment of the distributional impacts of autonomous adaptation to climate change from European agriculture
该研究通过耦合微观经济模型和作物模型，评估了欧盟农业自主适应气候变化对福利和收入分配的影响，发现气候变化会改变农户的福利排名，但收入不平等主要由地区和农场类型决定。
Farmers facing a durable change in climate conditions may autonomously adapt through the intensive margin, the extensive margin, or through the adoption of new practices. Based on a coupling between a microeconomic model of European agriculture (AROPAj) and a crop model (STICS), this article investigates the potential distributional impacts of farm-level autonomous adaptation to climate change within the European Union (EU-27). Considering the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 of the second report on emission scenario of the fifth assessment report (SRES AR5), we implement two levels of autonomous adaptation for farmers, and three time horizons. The results indicate that ceteris paribus, climate change may lead in terms of social welfare to a slightly worse situation in the middle term and a slightly better situation in the long term with respect to the present. However, the ranking of agents in the distribution is importantly impacted. Our Shapley inequality decomposition shows that income inequality is largely explained by the region and type of farming. Climate change barely affects the marginal contribution of these two characteristics to overall income inequality.