What a Puzzle! Unravelling Why UK Phillips Curves were Unstable
研究了英国名义工资通胀与失业率之间关系的不稳定性，发现这种不稳定性源于某些解释变量在特定时期不显著，而非结构性断裂。
Abstract The UK relationship between nominal wage inflation and the unemployment rate is unstable. Over sub‐periods of the last 160 years of turbulent data, Phillips curve slopes range from strongly negative, slightly negative, flat, slightly positive and strongly positive. Our constant‐parameter congruent model of real wages explains these instabilities, yet also implies a constant negative relationship between nominal wage inflation and the unemployment rate when corrected by its regressors. Disentangling these effects reveals that structural breaks in the real‐wage model's variables do not explain the instabilities, which instead occur during sub‐periods when some of its explanatory variables are insignificant.