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通过修订揭示有风险的选择错误

Revealing risky mistakes through revisions

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty · 2024
被引 12 · 同刊同年前 4%
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

研究发现,在没有新信息的情况下修改选择意味着最初的选择是错误的。实验允许被试修改部分初始选择,结果超过75%的选择被修改,且修改后的决策更优,错误在缺乏经验或面对小概率彩票时更严重。

Abstract

Abstract We argue that a choice that is modified, absent any informational change, is revealed to have been a mistake. In an experiment, we allow subjects to choose from budgets over binary lotteries. To identify mistakes, which we interpret as deviations from an underlying “true” preference, we allow subjects to revise a subset of their initial choices. The set of revised decisions improves under several standard definitions of optimality. These mistakes are prevalent: subjects modify over 75% of their initial choices when given the chance. Subjects make larger mistakes when inexperienced and when choosing over lotteries with small probabilities of winning.

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