Recent Developments in Financial Risk and the Real Economy
综述了宏观经济学和金融学中关于金融风险与实体经济关系的最新研究，聚焦于不确定性的期限结构、方差风险溢价的长期下降以及条件偏度的时间变化，并介绍了两个新的数据序列。
In this article, we review recent developments in macroeconomics and finance on the relationship between financial risk and the real economy. We focus on three specific topics: ( a ) the term structure of uncertainty, ( b ) time variation—specifically, the long-term decline—in the variance risk premium, and ( c ) time variation in conditional skewness. We also introduce two new data series: implied volatility from one-day options on grains for the period 1906–1936 and prices of cliquet options, which provide insurance against single-day crashes on the S&P 500. Both series give some context to the recent rise in trade in extremely short-dated options. Finally, we discuss new avenues for future research.