Consumer participation in the credit market during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond
利用2020年第一季度至2023年第二季度的欧洲央行消费者预期调查数据，分析了欧元区消费者在新冠疫情和俄乌冲突期间申请信贷的决策及信贷被批准的概率，发现封锁结束和补偿计划实施对信贷需求有显著影响。
Abstract This article analyses the consumer’s decision to apply for credit and the probability of the credit being accepted in the euro area during a period characterized by the unprecedented concomitance of events and changing borrowing conditions linked to the global coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We use data between 2020Q1 and 2023Q2 from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. We find that credit demand is the highest when the first lockdown ends and it drops when supportive monetary compensation schemes are implemented. There is evidence that constrained households are significantly less likely to apply for credit. Credit is more likely to be accepted under favourable borrowing conditions and after the approval of national recovery plans. We also find that demographic, economic factors, perceptions, and expectations are associated with the demand for credit and the credit grant.