Uncertainty, precautionary saving, and investment: Evidence from prescheduled election cycles
研究发现，企业在预定选举前一年就开始增加现金持有，并在选举前后不确定性高、外部融资成本高时减少投资、动用现金储备，以避免外部融资。
Abstract We show empirically that firms increase cash holdings starting as early as one year before prescheduled (i.e., predictable) elections. Then, for four quarters around elections when uncertainty and external financing costs are high, firms decrease investment and draw down saved cash balances to avoid tapping external financing. We use a dynamic model of firm investment and saving to demonstrate the importance of anticipation of future financing costs to firms' pre‐election precautionary saving behavior. Theoretically, if election uncertainty were only to affect potential investment, lower firm investment would result in higher contemporaneous cash balances, which is inconsistent with our empirical results.