Macro fundamentals and the resurgence of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in Europe
研究了全球金融危机后欧洲地区费尔德斯坦-堀江谜题再现的原因，发现低收入经济体生产力增长缓慢和外国负债累积会导致投资与储蓄相关性上升，对研究国际资本流动的学者有参考价值。
This paper discusses the resurgence of the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle after the global financial crisis within the European space. Revisiting the theory of intertemporal choice, this paper suggests that the deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals that favor capital flows from richer to poorer economies can lead investment and savings to correlate across countries even without frictions to capital mobility. I test this hypothesis against a data set of 12 European economies spanning since the inception of the Maastricht treaty and ending immediately before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. I find that the investment-savings correlation is generally low both across and within open economies, aligning with the theoretical stylized fact. However, this can be jeopardized when low-income economies accumulate large net stocks of foreign liabilities coupled with sluggish prospects for productivity growth. Ultimately, if investment and savings are not managed in line with macro fundamentals, foreign investors eventually impose a premium on new liabilities, raising the cost of financing investment with foreign funds and leading the correlation between investment and savings to rise both across and within countries. • FH puzzle resurgence in Europe is associated to poor macro fundamentals. • Specifically; sluggish productivity and high stocks of foreign liabilities. • The I-S correlation can be interpreted as a warning sign.