Optimal dynamic climate adaptation pathways: a case study of New York City
提出基于实物期权分析和极值理论的灵活方法，帮助政府选择最优气候适应投资路径，并以纽约市海平面数据和适应方案为例验证。
Abstract Assessing climate risk and its potential impacts on our cities and economies is of fundamental importance. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and storm surges can lead to catastrophic damages. We propose a flexible approach based on real options analysis and extreme value theory, which enables the selection of optimal adaptation pathways for a portfolio of climate adaptation projects. We model the severity of extreme sea level events using the block maxima approach from extreme value theory, and then develop a real options framework, factoring in climate change, sea level rise uncertainty, and the growth in asset exposure. We then apply the proposed framework to a real-world problem, considering sea level data as well as different adaptation investment options for New York City. Our research can assist governments and policy makers in taking informed decisions about optimal adaptation pathways and more specifically about reducing flood and storm surge risk in a dynamic settings.