The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers
基于尼尔森家庭扫描面板调查数据，比较美国管理者与非管理者对通胀和失业的预期与感知，发现两者平均预期、分歧程度及对信息敏感度相似，但管理者的通胀预期常影响其经济决策，且与“锚定”预期存在系统性偏差。
Abstract Using responses obtained through the Nielsen Homescan panel survey, we explore the differences between managers’ and nonmanagers’ expectations and perceptions of inflation and unemployment. By and large, managers and nonmanagers exhibit similar average inflation and unemployment expectations as well as similar levels of disagreement and sensitivity to information provided in a randomized control trial. Responses to hypothetical questions suggest that inflation expectations of managers frequently affect their economic decisions. Finally, the inflation expectations of managers deviate systematically from the predictions of “anchored” expectations.