The Global Transmission of Real Economic Uncertainty
基于39国样本，研究发现实际经济不确定性对国内经济有持久负面影响，并通过贸易渠道跨国传导，外国不确定性冲击可解释国内工业产出未来变动的16%。
Abstract Using a sample of 39 countries representing 88% of global GDP, we find that real economic uncertainty (REU) has negative long‐lasting domestic economic effects and transmits across countries. The international spillover effects of REU are both statistically significant and economically meaningful, and trade ties play a key role in explaining its transmission across countries. Innovations to the foreign component of global REU can contribute up to 16% of the future variation in domestic industrial production. This effect is disproportionately larger on its manufacturing component, which contributes the most to the tradable goods sector, than on its retail sales component.