Economic policy uncertainty and credit risk in microfinance: A cross‐country analysis
基于9国670家小额信贷机构1999-2018年数据，发现经济政策不确定性会显著提高其信用风险，而小组贷款模式、非政府组织和合作社/信用合作社能缓解这一影响。
Abstract Using a cross‐country data set of 670 microfinance institutions (MFIs) in nine countries from 1999 to 2018, this study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the credit risk of MFIs. The empirical results show that EPU significantly increases the credit risk of MFIs. Our findings are valid in a series of robustness checks. The moderating effects reveal that group lending can mitigate the impact of EPU on the credit risk of MFIs and that EPU has a weaker impact on nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and cooperatives and credit unions (Coop/CUs). We explore potential channels through which credit risk is influenced by EPU from the perspectives of earnings volatility and cost. We find that EPU increases the credit risk of MFIs not only by reducing profitability and leverage levels and increasing earnings volatility but also by raising financing costs.