Political Uncertainty and the Geographic Allocation of Credit: Evidence from Small Businesses
研究发现，当银行面临所在州的政治不确定性时，会减少本地贷款、增加向高收入地区的外州小企业放贷，这促进了外州资本密集型行业的就业和创业。
Abstract We investigate how banks change the geographic distribution of their small business loan portfolio when they face political uncertainty in some of the states where they operate. Using exogenous variation in gubernatorial elections with binding term limits, we show that political uncertainty causes local banks to increase out‐of‐state lending to small firms, particularly those located in higher‐income areas. This effect follows a decrease in local lending and is stronger for banks that are more capital‐constrained. The increase in out‐of‐state credit leads to an increase in employment growth and net firm creation in sectors with larger capital needs.