LABOR MARKET INSTITUTIONS AND FERTILITY
利用西班牙行政数据，发现临时合同降低初育率，母亲较少从事中间有长休息的轮班工作；模型分析表明，消除双重劳动市场或轮班工作制可提高女性劳动参与和生育率，结合育儿补贴可使已婚女性生育率升至1.8。
Abstract Some high‐income countries have total fertility rates as low as one child. Using Spanish administrative data, we document that temporary contracts correlate with lower first birth rates. Also, women with children are less likely to work split‐shift jobs with long breaks in the middle of the day. We build a life‐cycle model where women decide on labor supply and fertility. We show that reforms eliminating duality or split‐shift jobs raise women's labor participation, narrow the employment gap between mothers and nonmothers, and boost fertility for working women. These reforms, together with childcare subsidies, increase married women's fertility to 1.8 children.