Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage
研究了美联储相对于私人部门的通胀预测优势，发现其中约25%源于其对未来货币政策的了解，而非纯粹的信息优势。
Abstract Previous studies show the Fed has a forecast advantage over the private sector for inflation. We evaluate this advantage to determine how much of it results from the Fed's knowledge of future monetary policy. To do so, we develop two methods of equalizing the Fed's and private sector's information sets. We find that Fed forecasts do not encompass those of the private sector when the latter has knowledge of future monetary policy. Furthermore, we find that roughly 25% of the difference between the Fed's and the private sector's mean squared forecast error can be explained by monetary policy.