Inflation-overshooting commitment: an analysis using a macroeconomic model
构建小型宏观经济模型，模拟分析日本在适应性通胀预期下采用超调策略对实现通胀目标的效果及成本，发现补偿过去通胀缺口可稳定平均通胀，且自然利率越低最优补偿窗口越长。
Abstract This article examines the effectiveness of the makeup strategy for Japan’s economy, where inflation expectations formation is known to be largely adaptive. We build a small-scale macroeconomic model and conduct simulation analysis to study the implications of adopting the makeup strategy for early achievement of the inflation target and the incurring costs. Simulation results show that when the inflation rate has been below the target, it is effective to stabilize average inflation by offsetting the past inflation misses over some makeup windows and that when the natural rate of interest is lower, the optimal makeup window becomes longer.