Too-systemic-to-fail: Empirical comparison of systemic risk measures in the Eurozone financial system
从太大、太互联和太多三个维度量化欧元区的“太系统而不能倒”现象,比较多种系统性风险度量方法,识别最易受风险影响的金融部门和成员国。
This paper quantifies the Too-Systemic-To-Fail (TSTF) paradigm in the Eurozone since the introduction of the Euro through three primary dimensions: Too-Big-To-Fail (TBTF), Too-Interconnected-To-Fail (TITF), and Too-Many-To-Fail (TMTF). We apply prominent systemic risk measures based on public data, including the Granger-causality network (GCN), Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk (ΔCoVaR), Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), and Systemic Risk Index (SRISK). Financial interconnectedness and systemic risk exposure within the 17-member states of the Eurozone are measured on two levels: (i) identifying which financial sectors (banking, diversified financials, insurance, and real estate) are most exposed to systemic risk in the Eurozone at the union level; and (ii) identifying which member state is most exposed to systemic risk within each financial sector at the country level. We extend the original ΔCoVaR, MES and SRISK models by incorporating the bootstrap Kolmogorov-Smirnov stochastic dominance test to rank institutions based on their exposure to systemic risk formally.