Local Economic and Political Effects of Trade Deals: Evidence from NAFTA
研究发现1994年北美自由贸易协定导致依赖受冲击产业的县就业持续下降，这些县的选民（尤其是白人、低学历男性和社会保守派）转向反对推动该协定的克林顿总统所属政党。
Why have white, less-educated voters left the Democratic Party? We highlight the role of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In event-study analysis, we demonstrate that counties whose 1990 employment depended on industries vulnerable to NAFTA suffered large and persistent employment losses after its implementation. Voters in these counties (and protectionist voters regardless of geography) turned away from the party of President Clinton, who promoted the agreement. This shift is larger for whites (especially men and those without a college degree) and social conservatives, suggesting that racial identity and social-issue positions mediate reactions to economic policies.