The Flight to Safety and International Risk Sharing
构建了一个包含美元安全资产需求时变、美国风险承担能力更强以及名义刚性的国际货币体系商业周期模型，发现避险行为导致美元升值和全球产出下降，美元债券具有负风险溢价，并量化了安全冲击和风险承担能力差异对全球宏观经济波动、美国外部调整及政策传导的影响。
We study a business cycle model of the international monetary system featuring a time-varying demand for safe dollar bonds, greater risk-bearing capacity in the United States than the rest of the world, and nominal rigidities. A flight to safety generates a dollar appreciation and decline in global output. Dollar bonds thus command a negative risk premium, and the United States holds a levered portfolio of capital financed in dollars. We quantify the effects of safety shocks and heterogeneity in risk-bearing capacity for global macroeconomic volatility, US external adjustment, and policy transmission, as of dollar swap lines.