Climate change and winter wheat yields: the roles of freezing days and long-run adaptations
使用气候惩罚模型，估计了季节特异性气候变化对中国冬小麦产量的影响，并发现春季冰冻天数减少（因全球变暖）可带来小幅增产，而忽略此效应则导致大幅减产；长期适应效应甚至可能逆转气候变化影响的符号。
Abstract This paper employs the recently proposed climate penalty model to estimate season-specific climate change impacts on Chinese winter wheat yields and also reveals the effects of long-run adaptions by comparing the short-run and long-run estimates identified from the model. We find that Spring freezing days are critical as we estimate small yield gains when considering a reduction in the number of freezing days (induced by global warming), as opposed to large yield losses when such effects are omitted. We also find substantial influences of adaptation effects that could reverse the sign of climate change impacts.