The effect of birth timing manipulation around carnival on birth indicators in Brazil
研究了巴西狂欢节假期前后出生时间的操控模式，发现推迟剖腹产可降低新生儿死亡率，但提前分娩会减少低体重儿的出生体重，对政策制定者具有双重启示。
This paper studies the patterns and consequences of birth timing manipulation around the carnival holiday in Brazil. We document how births are displaced around carnival and estimate the effect of displacement on birth indicators. We show that there is extensive birth timing manipulation in the form of both anticipation and postponement that results in a net increase in gestational length and reductions in neonatal and early neonatal mortality, driven by postponed births that would otherwise happen through scheduled c-sections. We also find a reduction in birthweight for high-risk births at the bottom of the weight distribution, driven by anticipation. Therefore, restrictions on usual delivery procedures due to the carnival holiday can be both beneficial and detrimental, raising a double-sided issue to be addressed by policymakers.