Plant-level adjustments to imports and exports at the extensive margin
基于异质性企业DSGE模型，实证分析中国贸易冲击对企业层面调整的影响，发现进口增加提高企业退出概率，而出口导向型企业退出概率较低。
This paper presents an empirical analysis of plant level responses to the China trade shock based upon a DSGE framework with heterogeneous firms. The empirical analysis shows that soaring imports from China are associated with a higher probability of plant closure. By contrast, firms in export oriented industries are less likely to exit. We rationalize these findings by several counter-factual experiments based upon a DSGE framework. Imports always raise the exit rate but the export-effect is ambiguous. More exports fuel competition among domestic rivals associated with more exits. However, this competition effect disappears when the share of exporters is extremely high. The effects of imports and exports on firm entry are close to zero in both theory and empircs. We also introduce a novel productivity shock channel. Additional export sales better protect firms from other shocks. We show this by introducing negative productivity shocks into the model. • Empirical analysis of firm responses to China shock explained by DSGE model with heterogeneous firms and productivity shocks. • Empirically, imports from China make plant closures more likely. Firms in export-oriented industries are less likely to exit. • Imports always raise the exit rate in our model while the export effect is ambiguous due to a competition effect. • Introducing negative productivity shocks in the model solves the ambiguity as exports shield firms from these shocks. • The negative effects of Chinese imports on plant exit can be offset by the positive interaction effects.