Monetary Policy, Employment Shortfalls, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis
在自然率模型中考虑非对称损失函数，发现最优货币政策会加剧就业缺口并导致通胀偏差，而更对称的央行目标可降低缺口和偏差。
Abstract Activity shortfalls are more costly than strong activity. I consider optimal monetary policy under discretion with an asymmetric (shortfalls) loss function in a natural rate model. The optimal monetary policy exacerbates shortfalls, owing to the adjustment of expectations implied by the natural rate hypothesis, and leads to an inflationary bias. Mandating a central bank objective with greater symmetry lowers activity shortfalls and inflation bias. The model also implies that an optimal monetary policy does not accommodate fluctuations from aggregate demand shocks. The analysis implies that monetary accommodation of strong economic activity requires justifications other than asymmetric costs of shortfalls.