Supply Shocks in Global Value Chains and Export Performance: Evidence from Bangladesh Using Triple Difference-in-Differences
利用孟加拉国服装企业交易数据，采用三重差分法评估中国疫情封锁导致的供应链冲击如何使依赖中国投入品的企业出口下降36.5%，且对欧美市场集中度高的企业影响更大。
In this paper, we evaluate how supply shocks in global value chains, such as the lockdown in China during the coronavirus pandemic, affected firm-product-level export performance in Bangladesh, which is a least-developed country where domestic inputs are inadequate due to capacity constraints. Transaction-level customs data on the universe of Bangladeshi apparel manufacturing firms are used in the analysis. We apply a triple difference-in-differences approach to compare the woven apparel exports of the firms that relied on China for inputs before and after the lockdown with those of knit apparel and firms that depended on the rest of the world as a comparison group. The results show that firms exposed to the Chinese input supply shock experienced a 36.5% decline in woven apparel exports after the lockdown. A plausible explanation for the decline in exports is the reduced shipment size driven by the constrained production capacity due to the shortage of inputs from China. We also find that exposed firms whose exports were highly concentrated in the European Union and the United States incurred an additional 18% decline compared to other firms.