The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand‐ and Supply‐Driven Recessions
估计了欧元区在需求驱动和供给驱动衰退中的政府支出乘数，发现需求驱动衰退中的乘数是供给驱动衰退中的两到三倍，乘数与通胀偏离趋势的程度负相关。
Abstract We estimate government spending multipliers in demand‐ and supply‐driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand‐driven recession are two to three times larger than in a moderately supply‐driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non‐zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand‐driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Multipliers range from 0.5 in supply‐driven recessions to about 2 in demand‐driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factor‐augmented interacted vector‐autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR‐X). The model captures the time‐varying state of the business‐cycle including strongly and moderately demand‐ and supply‐driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account.