Subjective unemployment expectations and (self-)insurance
利用结合调查主观失业预期与行政数据的纵向数据，研究发现主观预期能预测后续失业经历，且人们倾向于高估失业风险，进而更可能购买失业保险和增加流动性储蓄。
We study subjective unemployment expectations and their influence on economic behavior. We utilize a longitudinal data set combining survey elicited subjective unemployment expectations with administrative data on income, savings, and unemployment insurance. Our findings indicate that subjective expectations hold valuable predictive information about subsequent unemployment experiences. We find that individuals tend to overestimate their risk of unemployment. Moreover, higher unemployment expectations lead to a greater likelihood of enrolling in unemployment insurance and accumulation of liquid savings.