The Great Recession’s Baby‐Less Recovery
研究发现美国大衰退期间生育率下降，复苏期继续下滑，其中非意愿生育下降22%，主要因人口特征变化、性活动减少和避孕方法改进。
<h3>Abstract</h3> U.S. fertility declined as expected during the Great Recession, but then continued to fall throughout the recovery period. This drop was more acute among young women and unmarried women, whose births are more likely to be unintended. We use a combined‐survey estimation strategy to estimate birth intention consistently over time. We find that between 2007 and 2019 intended births fell by 8.5 percent, while unintended births fell by 22 percent. The decline in unintended births is primarily explained by changes in demographic characteristics of women of childbearing age, reductions in sexual activity, and shifts to more effective methods of contraception.