Modeling uncertainty in tourism markets
研究不确定性如何影响旅游市场的价格和促销决策，发现不确定性导致价格上涨，但目的地会加强促销以减轻负面影响，且消费者比目的地受冲击更大。
In the recent years the tourism sector has been hit by a number of uncertainty events. This paper studies how uncertainty impacts on the tourism markets and on the destinations price and promotion decisions. We consider a two-stage model with two reference destinations and product differentiation. Specifically, we distinguish between traveling and production costs/inputs uncertainty, and between informative and persuasive advertising. We found that uncertainty tends to increase prices as destinations pass uncertainty to consumers. However, in order to minimize the negative effect of higher prices in their bookings, destinations tend to intensify their promotion efforts. Altogether, uncertainty typically affects more consumers than destinations, which in most cases see their profits increase because of the increase in prices. • How uncertainty impacts on the destinations price and promotion strategies. • Distinguish demand vs supply uncertainty, informative vs persuasive advertising. • Uncertainty increases prices as destinations pass uncertainty to consumers. • Under uncertainty destinations tend to intensify their promotion efforts. • Uncertainty affects more consumers than destinations.