EU transnational coalitions in polycrisis: the Visegrád-4 before and after the Russo-Ukrainian war
研究了维谢格拉德四国集团在欧盟政治中的影响力变化，发现其有效性在脱欧后显著下降，尤其在俄乌战争后的高冲突领域出现分裂。
The advances in EU integration since COVID-19 and Russia’s full-scale invasion have challenged the expectations of cross-cutting cleavages resulting in a ‘politics trap’. This article addresses this puzzle through a case study of the Visegrád-4 (V4), a key coalition in EU politics which significantly influenced many policy areas but whose effectiveness has strikingly diminished post-Brexit. Borrowing insights from EU integration theories and the literature on transnational coalitions, the article contends that inter-state cooperation depends on salience and national politicisation strategies. Based on a survey of policy documents and secondary literature, it argues that the V4 group effectively shaped EU policy through issue-specific bargaining in low-salience areas and joint politicisation of high-salience issues when it fitted the political strategies of incumbent leaders. However, in the ‘second polycrisis’, V4 unity and influence in EU politics have frayed due to overlapping conflicts in high-salience, non-negotiable areas, prominently, security.