Fiscal Reaction Functions Augmented with Bespoke Debt Indicators: Evidence from Small Island States
研究了特立尼达和多巴哥与毛里求斯这两个小岛屿发展中国家的财政反应函数，发现债务可持续但财政政策顺周期，债务波动对前者影响显著。
Developing countries have a higher propensity for debt distress than their developed counterparts and small economies are more vulnerable to external shocks than larger ones. We examine the primary balances of two economies at the intersection of developing and smallness classifications – so-called small island developing states (SIDS) – Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) and Mauritius. These countries have comparable characteristics (smallness, openness, populations, and are former plantation economies with similar colonial histories) but differ in their natural resource wealth status (the former is resource-rich and the latter is resource-poor). Given the myopic insights provided by single metrics of government indebtedness, such as the debt-to-GDP ratio, we augment standard fiscal reaction functions with purpose-built debt sustainability measures that use principal component analysis to consolidate the information content imbedded in a comprehensive range of country-relevant fiscal ratios. Our results show while debt is sustainable in both countries, fiscal policy is procyclical. We also find that debt volatility is positive and significant for T&T’s primary balance but is insignificant for Mauritius, which we attribute to the differing degrees of export-diversification between the countries. Policy recommendations include greater commitments to counter-cyclical fiscal policy in both SIDS and greater export-diversification initiatives in T&T.