The real exchange rate and industrial investment: new evidence for Brazil
研究了2007-2018年巴西81个制造业部门中实际汇率对投资的影响，发现竞争性汇率通过促进出口和增加进口成本两种渠道影响投资，且对低加价率部门影响更大。
Abstract This study empirically investigates the influence exerted by the real exchange rate (RER) on investments in 81 sectors of Brazil’s manufacturing industry, between 2007 and 2018. The work has a number of novel features. First, a more disaggregated database is employed than that commonly found in the existing literature. Second, the article’s empirical findings indicate the existence of two competing channels through which a competitive RER may influence sectoral investments, that is: (i) positively, by enhanced exports and (ii) negatively, via more expensive imported inputs. Third, our empirical results also indicate that the RER’s influence is more significant in sectors with a lower mark-up, which means that a competitive RER—caused by expanding revenues from exports, offsets a lack of internal funds to finance new investments. Fourth, we tested the existence of an import penetration channel. The results reveal that a competitive RER increases investments as consumers substitute imported goods with domestic ones.