Credit constraints and delayed entrepreneurship
本文利用喀麦隆非正规部门数据，研究信贷约束如何延迟创业并造成福利损失，发现潜在创业者平均需工作7年才能积累启动资金，且约10.9%的潜在创业者因信贷约束永远无法创业。
How much do financial constraints delay entrepreneurship and how much do they cost households in terms of foregone welfare in countries with large informal sectors and poorly developed financial markets? This paper uses a standard, partial equilibrium, dynamic model of occupational choice under financial constraints to derive the optimal time that households take to switch from subsistence work to entrepreneurship. Using data from the informal sector in Cameroon, the paper first tests the implications of the model with reduced-form, survival regression models and then structurally estimates key parameters using maximum likelihood. Prospective entrepreneurs would need to work for an average of 7 years as subsisters to accumulate the minimum savings required to start their micro-enterprise. Among the potential entrepreneurs about 53% are subsisters implying a missing proportion of entrepreneurs of 10.9% among which more than 32% have wealth below their estimated poverty traps. This means that despite their talent and ability to save a sizable fraction of the population will never start a profitable firm, given the tight collateral constraints in the economy. Finally, the paper conducts counterfactual simulations based on the estimated model. The results show substantial welfare gains from relaxing credit constraints , accruing mostly to high talent individuals.