Long-Term Stock Market Risks and Returns: Insights from the Perspective of a Global EUR Investor
基于1960至2022年中国、德国等六国数据，分析全球欧元投资者的长期通胀调整后股票市场风险与回报，发现某些市场长期实际回报可能为负，且风险评估高度依赖个人风险态度。
This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the long-term inflation-adjusted stock market risks and returns from the perspective of a global euro investor, utilizing data from China, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States from 1960 to 2022. The findings highlight that although these indexes have generally yielded positive returns, investing in selected stock markets can lead to negative euro real returns over the long term. A utility-based risk measure analysis reveals that the risk assessment of stock index returns can strongly depend on investors’ individual risk attitudes. These results challenge the perception that long-term stock market investments are inherently safe.