Neural network approach to portfolio optimization with leverage constraints: a case study on high inflation investment
针对当前全球高通胀环境，提出一种杠杆可行的神经网络（LFNN）来求解带杠杆约束的动态多期投资组合优化问题，实证显示该策略在四资产场景下以超90%概率跑赢被动基准，年化收益中位数高出约200个基点。
Motivated by the current global high inflation scenario, we aim to discover a dynamic multi-period allocation strategy to optimally outperform a passive benchmark while adhering to a bounded leverage limit. We formulate an optimal control problem to outperform a benchmark portfolio throughout the investment horizon. To obtain strategies under the bounded leverage constraint among other realistic constraints, we propose a novel leverage-feasible neural network (LFNN) to represent the control, which converts the original constrained optimization problem into an unconstrained optimization problem that is computationally feasible with gradient descent, without dynamic programming. We establish mathematically that the LFNN approximation can yield a solution that is arbitrarily close to the solution of the original optimal control problem with bounded leverage. We further validate the performance of the LFNN empirically by deriving a closed-form solution under jump-diffusion asset price models and show that a shallow LFNN model achieves comparable results on synthetic data. In the case study, we apply the LFNN approach to a four-asset investment scenario with bootstrap-resampled asset returns from the filtered high inflation regimes. The LFNN strategy is shown to consistently outperform the passive benchmark strategy by about 200 bps (median annualized return), with a greater than 90% probability of outperforming the benchmark at the end of the investment horizon.