What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt‐to‐Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not Bark
研究发现美国债务产出比的变动主要源于其自身的高度持续性，而非未来盈余或国债折现率的变化，且市场对国债的估值对宏观基本面出奇地不敏感。
ABSTRACT A higher U.S. government debt‐to‐output (D‐O) ratio does not forecast higher surpluses or lower returns on Treasurys in the future. Neither future cash flows nor discount rates account for the variation in the current D‐O ratio. The market valuation of Treasurys is surprisingly insensitive to macro fundamentals. Instead, the future D‐O ratio accounts for most of the variation because the D‐O ratio is highly persistent. Systematic surplus forecast errors may help account for these findings. Since the start of the Global Financial Crisis, surplus projections have anticipated a large fiscal correction that failed to materialize.