Subnational Income, Growth, and the COVID-19 Pandemic
利用实时数据和机器学习方法，研究了2012至2021年巴基斯坦147个地区的月度国民总收入，发现疫情导致收入下降，高发病率地区降幅更大，且地区间收入不平等有所缩小。
ABSTRACT Using real-time data and machine-learning methods, we produce monthly aggregates on gross national income (GNI) for 147 Pakistani districts between 2012 and 2021. We use them to understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the growth and subnational distribution of income in Pakistan. Three findings emerge from our analysis. First, districts experienced a sizable decline in income during the pandemic, as their monthly growth rate dropped on average by 0.133 percentage points. Second, a larger income drop took place in districts with a higher COVID-19 incidence, which correspond to urban areas characterized by a higher population density. Third, COVID-19 caused a decline in income inequality across districts, with richer districts experiencing more negative income growth during the pandemic.