The Economic Dynamics After a Flood: Evidence from Satellite Data
利用卫星数据构建山洪指数，研究其对中美洲和加勒比地区经济活动的影响，发现山洪在低中等人类发展指数国家导致短期经济下降，高发展指数国家更具韧性。
Abstract This study investigates the effect of flash floods on local economic activity in Central America and the Caribbean. I measure these rarely analyzed floods by constructing a high-resolution, physically based index of flash flood occurrence from satellite data and connect these to changes in local night light emissions. After accounting for tropical cyclone activity, flash floods have a delayed, short-term negative effect on economic activity. In countries with a low to medium human development index (HDI), the average negative effect can be up to $$5.6\%$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>5.6</mml:mn> <mml:mo>%</mml:mo> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> in the following months. Countries with higher HDI appear more resilient and are only marginally affected. Also, flash floods exhibit a minor positive spatial spillover in low to medium HDI countries, besides their more substantial local negative effect. Due to their high frequency, flash floods have a detrimental effect on local economic growth in developing countries that will likely be exacerbated by climate change.