Insensitive Investors
通过实验发现，人们的主观预期向实际行动的传导远弱于理论预测，原因是认知噪声干扰了资产估值计算；当预期接近理性时，传导才变强。这对理解股市需求缺乏弹性有启示。
ABSTRACT We experimentally study the transmission of subjective expectations into actions. Subjects in our experiment report valuations that are far too insensitive to their expectations, relative to the prediction from a frictionless model. We propose that the insensitivity is driven by a noisy cognitive process that prevents subjects from precisely computing asset valuations. The empirical link between subjective expectations and actions becomes stronger as subjective expectations approach rational expectations. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating weak transmission into belief‐based asset pricing models. Finally, we discuss how cognitive noise can provide a microfoundation for inelastic demand in the stock market.