The propagation of business expectations within the European Union
利用欧盟官方商业调查和投入产出数据，实证研究企业预期在欧盟内部的传播，发现预期形成中存在显著溢出效应，且下游渠道比上游更重要。
Summary This paper empirically investigates the propagation of firm expectations within the European Union (EU). To this end, we combine information from EU‐wide official business surveys with input–output data. Econometrically, we model interdependencies in economic activities via input–output linkages and apply space‐time models with common factors. The resulting evidence provides indication for the existence of substantial spillover effects in expectation formation. They are transmitted both upstream and downstream the European value chain, but the latter channel matters more.