Strategic flood impact mitigation in developing countries’ urban road networks: Application to Hanoi
为发展中国家城市设计了一个优化决策工具，通过混合整数线性规划模型和元启发式算法，选择成本有效的洪水缓解投资，以减少基础设施损坏和交通拥堵，并以河内为例展示了20年投资计划。
Due to climate change, the frequency and scale of flood events worldwide are increasing dramatically. Flood impacts are especially acute in developing countries, where they often revert years of progress in sustainable development and poverty reduction. This paper introduces an optimization-based decision support tool for selecting cost-efficient flood mitigation investments in developing countries’ urban areas. The core of the tool is a scenario-based, multi-period, bi-objective Mixed Integer Linear Programming model which minimizes infrastructure damage and traffic congestion in urban road networks. The tool was developed in collaboration with Vietnamese stakeholders (e.g., local communities and government authorities), and integrates data and inputs from other disciplines, including social science, transport economics, climatology and hydrology. A metaheuristic, combining a Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure with a Variable Neighborhood Descent algorithm, is developed to solve large scale problem instances. An extensive computational campaign on randomly generated instances demonstrates the efficiency of the metaheuristic in solving realistic problems with hundreds of interdependent flood mitigation interventions. Finally, the applicability of the interdisciplinary approach is demonstrated on a real case study to generate a 20-year plan of mitigation investments for the urban area of Hanoi. Policy implications and impacts of the study are also discussed.