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具有水平依赖保费率的风险过程的概率方法

Probabilistic approach to risk processes with level-dependent premium rate

Insurance Mathematics and Economics · 2024
被引 0
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

研究了保费率随风险储备增加而趋近净利条件临界值的风险过程,用纯概率方法推导了破产概率的上下界,并发现即使索赔分布是轻尾的,破产概率也可能是重尾的。

Abstract

We study risk processes with level dependent premium rate. Assuming that the premium rate converges, as the risk reserve increases, to the critical value in the net-profit condition, we obtain upper and lower bounds for the ruin probability; our proving technique is purely probabilistic and based on the analysis of Markov chains with asymptotically zero drift. We show that such risk processes give rise to heavy-tailed ruin probabilities whatever the distribution of the claim size, even if it is a bounded random variable. So, the risk processes with near critical premium rate provide an important example of a stochastic model where light-tailed input produces heavy-tailed output.

风险理论破产概率马尔可夫链精算学