Rolling the Dice: Resolving Demand Uncertainty in Markets with Partial Network Effects
研究了部分网络效应市场中网络产品与独立产品在需求不确定性上的差异，发现网络产品扩散方差更大，且受产品新颖性和竞争强度影响更显著，对理解网络效应和创新扩散有参考价值。
It is commonly assumed that when markets are characterized by network effects, this universally affects all competing products. In reality, however, firms often have agency in terms of whether to incorporate social features that have the potential to generate network effects. When this is the case, markets are characterized by partial network effects—some products have network effects, whereas others compete on the basis of a standalone value proposition. In this study, we focus on the differences in demand uncertainty between network products and standalone products competing in such a market. We develop theory predicting how a product’s social features interact with other known drivers of demand uncertainty to impact diffusion. We test our arguments in the global board games industry, where board games designed around the collection and trading of “collectible components” compete against traditional board games. Results show that network products exhibit greater variance in diffusion and that their diffusion is disproportionately affected by the degree of product novelty and the intensity and type of competition. Our findings contribute to the literatures on network effects and the diffusion of innovations.