Macroeconomic and social impacts of Nigeria's net-zero development pathways: A hybrid model analysis
用宏观经济模型与能源系统模型联动，评估尼日利亚五种能源路径的宏观经济和社会影响，发现净零路径需国际援助才能兼顾减排与增长。
This research explores the macroeconomic and social impacts of five energy-explicit development pathways for Nigeria's economy: Baseline (BAU), Current Policy Scenario (CPS), Gas Economy Scenario (GES), Renewable Energy Scenario (RES) aligned with Nigeria’s 2060 net-zero emissions pledge, and a RES variant with international support (RES+). The analysis leverages soft-linking of the top-down KLEM-NGA macroeconomic model and the bottom-up LEAP-NGA energy system model, utilizing a comprehensive energy-economy database including original input-output and energy balance tables. Under the RES scenario, achieving emissions reductions incurs a 3.5% GDP and 3.2% employment loss by 2060 compared to BAU, or a 4.5% GDP loss compared to GES, which fully utilizes gas reserves to fuel the domestic economy and sustain the trade balance. However, the RES+ scenario, augmented by international aid to bridge the investment gap between CPS and RES, results in GDP and employment performances comparable to GES while reducing emissions to 16 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2060, versus 151 million tons under GES. This transition, conditional on international aid totaling 880 billion USD over 39 years—an average of 1.1% of Nigerian GDP annually from 2022 to 2060—could pivot Nigeria from a short-sighted gas economy towards a sustainable net-zero future.