The emerging international trade in hydrogen: Environmental policies, innovation, and trade dynamics
研究了基于长期合同的氢贸易理论模型，模拟发现贸易政策比碳政策和创新政策更能影响氢贸易格局，且贸易成本和运输方式决定不同氢生产类型的相对份额。
Hydrogen produced from renewable energy and other carbon-neutral sources has the potential of becoming an important medium for storing and transporting energy, partially taking on the role that fossil fuels play to date. We develop a novel theoretical and empirical model of sequential trade based on long-term contracts with one or more fixed-capacity projects entering each period in a modified Nash-Cournot competition. We simulate the emerging international trade in hydrogen using calibrated demand, supply, transportation, and policy data, exploring a set of scenarios to determine which factors have significant influence—in particular environmental, innovation, and trade policies. Our findings suggest that hydrogen trade exhibits significant price dispersion and two-way trade as vintages of contracts overlap in a market defined by endogenous innovation and policy interventions. Trade costs and the mode of transportation (pipelines or ammonia conversion, possibly others) play a pivotal role and influence the relative share of hydrogen production types (green, blue, or turquoise). Trade policies emerge as a more essential determinant of hydrogen trade than carbon and innovation policies.