Job displacement costs of phasing out coal
利用英国煤炭行业崩溃的数据，研究发现煤矿工人失业后时薪下降40%，年收入下降80%至90%，且15年后仍显著偏低，累计损失达失业前收入的4至6倍。
The reduction of carbon emissions will require a rapid phasing out of coal and the displacement of millions of coal miners. How much could this energy transition cost mining workers? We use the dramatic collapse of the UK coal industry to estimate the long-term impact on displaced miners. We find evidence of substantial losses: hourly wages fell by 40% and earnings fell by 80% to 90% one year after job loss. These losses are persistent and remain significantly depressed fifteen years later, amounting to present discounted value earnings losses of between four and six times the miners pre-displacement earnings. • We estimate the decline in earnings following displacement during the collapse of coal mining in the UK. • Hourly wages fell by 40% and earnings fell by 80% to 90% one year after job loss. • Earnings remain depressed 15 years later. • Present value earnings losses amount to between 4 and 6 times the miners pre-displacement earnings.