Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment
构建统一理论框架解释长期低利率的两种假说（通缩预期陷阱与长期停滞），并用日本1998-2019年数据检验，发现数据支持预期陷阱假说，因其能产生通胀与产出增长的负相关。
We develop a theoretical framework that rationalizes two hypotheses of long-lasting low-interest rate episodes: deflationary-expectations-traps and secular stagnation in a unified setting. These hypotheses differ in the sign of the theoretical correlation between inflation and output growth that they imply. Using the data from Japan over 1998:I–2019:IV, we find that the data favor the expectations-trap hypothesis. The superior model fit of the expectations trap relies on its ability to generate the observed negative correlation between inflation and output growth.